Flagship Programme 1
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Ground Motion Simulation and Validation
Leader: Brendon Bradley
Deputy Leader: David Dempsey
Industry Representative: Didier Pettinga
This flagship will provide a paradigm shift in strong ground motion prediction in Aotearoa New Zealand and internationally through the use of high-fidelity physics-based prediction methods, which merge state-of-the-art knowledge in strong motion seismology and geotechnical earthquake engineering. The impact of this flagship will result from the reduction in the design level seismic hazard in many regions through an increased prediction precision, identification of regions with an increased seismic hazard resulting from systematic basin and topographic ground motion phenomena; quantification of ground motion intensity affecting spatially distributed infrastructure networks.
Key Thrust Areas
1: Simulation Methods
Development and refinement of ground motion simulation methods that enable the generation of acceleration time series for the seismic response analysis of infrastructure.
2: Velocity Model Development
Development of ‘velocity models’ of the earth’s crust in new regions of Aotearoa New Zealand, or improvements in existing regions.
3: Nonlinear Site and Topographic Response
Develop, validate, and apply models for nonlinear near surface site and topographic response for use in conjunction with ground motion simulation methods.
4: Application for Major New Zealand Scenarios
Utilise ground motion simulations to forecast the severity of ground shaking over spatially-distributed regions in future major Aotearoa New Zealand earthquakes.
5: Uncertainties and PSHA
Examination of modelling uncertainties in ground motion simulation methods and utilisation for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.
6: Use of Simulations in Earthquake Engineering Analyses
Explore the role of simulated ground motions for use in seismic response analysis of engineering infrastructure, including comparisons with as recorded ground motions and development of procedures for simulated ground motions in infrastructure seismic design guidelines.